 Flashermac
Curmudgeon
Posts: 30895
Loc: Transylvania
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Bangkok Post
28 Mar 2008
Soaring exports may cause local shortage
Thailand, the world's largest rice exporter, could face a shortage of rice after skyrocketing prices have encouraged traders to substantially increase their export volumes, Prasert Kosalwit, the director-general of the Rice Department, said yesterday.
Concerns over shortages could lead to the introduction of measures to control the amount of rice exported in the second half of this year if the price continues to increase. The measures have been floated by Deputy Commerce Minister Wiroon Techapaiboon.
Fears of a shortage come against a backdrop of signs of rice shortages in some countries, including the Philippines and neighbouring Cambodia.
The Cambodian government yesterday appealed for people to remain calm and not to stock up on food commodities after the government banned rice exports on Wednesday.
The Philippines rushed to sign a purchase agreement with Vietnam for 1.5 million tonnes of rice this year to alleviate an expected shortage in coming months. The agreement came one day after the government announced the country was facing a serious rice supply crisis.
India has banned the export of rice to other countries, while China and Vietnam have already reduced export volumes.
"A rice shortage in the local market is very likely," warned Mr Prasert.
Link
A happy childhood... is the worst possible preparation for life. - Kinky Friedman
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Faustian
Carpal Tunnel
Posts: 6516
Loc: The Elysium fields
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In response to Flashermac - Thailand braces for rice crisis
Wow! Any idea why the prices have gone up? Why the local shortages in some countries?
| "Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities" - Voltaire. |
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Old Hippie
I LOST a friend
Posts: 23968
Loc: SFO/OAK/BKK
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In response to Faustian - Thailand braces for rice crisis
Yeah, what caused this? Or is it more greed manipulation?
| "....'cause when life looks like easy street, there is danger at your door..." -Hunter/Garcia |
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Julian2
enthusiast
Posts: 7149
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In response to Old Hippie - Thailand braces for rice crisis
A lot of growers cut back on rice and switched to other crops like Soy beans and maize up here, the idea was that Chinese rice would be cheaper than growing it.
Having said that, most of the locals have a few rai and grow their own rice. they have a joint harvest with their neighbours and most families have twenty or thirty bags to put away or sell.
Edited by Julian2 on 28-03-08 07:38 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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Flashermac
Curmudgeon
Posts: 30895
Loc: Transylvania
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In response to Old Hippie - Thailand braces for rice crisis
Financial Times
Bangkok Post
28 Mar 2008
Queen voices concern about rice problems
Her Majesty the Queen is concerned about living conditions of the farmers after rice are reportedly stolen in many areas while there is a shortage of water.
According to Sing Buri governor Prapas Boonyindee, Her Majesty told her lady-in-waiting that she is worried about the farmers and would like provincial governors to look after them closely.
Prasert Kosalwit, director-general of the Rice Department, said Thursday the country could face a shortage of rice after skyrocketing prices have encouraged traders to substantially increase their export volumes. In Ayutthaya, meanwhile, about 10,000 rais of paddy fields have been ravaged by pests, which have been added to farmers' financial problems.
Mr Prapas said there is enough water for off-season ricefields at this period only. He encouraged farmers to plant crops that do not use a lot of water.
A happy childhood... is the worst possible preparation for life. - Kinky Friedman
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Flashermac
Curmudgeon
Posts: 30895
Loc: Transylvania
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In response to Flashermac - Thailand braces for rice crisis
Bangkok Post
28 Mar 2008
Jakarta tells Samak it wants to buy Thai rice
Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej on Thursday said that Indonesia expressed a desire to buy Thai rice on an annual basis and that he told Indonesian officials Thailand wants to purchase liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from Indonesia in return.
Referring to his Wednesday discussion with Indonesian President Yudhoyono Susilo Bambang during his two-day state visit to the country, he said the Indonesian government had a proper understanding of political developments in Thailand.
Regarding bilateral cooperation, he said, both sides are willing to give full cooperation and provide mutual assistance in all areas.
Initially, the Indonesian government expressed its intention to buy 100,000-300,000 tonnes of Thai rice each year and the Thai government wanted to purchase one million tonnes of LPG from Indonesia in reciprocation.
Additionally, Jakarta was willing to support Thailandâ??s plan to buy fertilizers, which are abundant in Indonesia.
He said officials of both sides would check product prices in details and make a purchase order in due course.
Mr Yudhoyono said Thailand and Indonesia would discuss the bilateral cooperation in all levels and expand their cooperation in trade and investment, security, energy, and fishery affairs to increase trade value.
The Indonesian leader reaffirmed his support in the energy cooperation, saying Thailand would be allowed to co-invest in Indonesia's oil and gas exploration and production in Indonesia.
Indonesia is the sixth country in the region that Mr Samak has visited since becoming Thailand's new prime minister last month. He has also visited Laos, Cambodia, Singapore, Burma and Vietnam.
A happy childhood... is the worst possible preparation for life. - Kinky Friedman
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Bangkoktraveler
. . . wish bone
Posts: 11069
Loc: ......end of the road.
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In response to Flashermac - Thailand braces for rice crisis
I heard that the price of rice has risen by 200 to 300%. Scary shit if true.
He dipped the pen into the ink and then faltered for just a second. A tremor had gone through his
bowels. To mark the paper was the decisive act. In small clumsy letters he wrote: April 4th, 1984 |
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chelseafan
League & Cup Winners 2010
Posts: 2493
Loc: London, UK
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In response to Bangkoktraveler - Thailand braces for rice crisis
It certainly is, remember if base items such as wheat, hops, rice etc go up, then so does pretty much everthing else.
I've just received my price increases from wine and beer producers and in some cases they have gone up by as much as 10%! We are talking big names here like Coors, Anheuser, Pernod and Constellation.
To top it off the Chancellor decides to put duty up by 4p a pint, the biggest single hike in 10 years. Welcome to rip-off Britain!
Life is getting very unconfortable for a lot of people globally. Get ready to stop buying the Heinz baked beans and look to switch to Tesco value beans 
| Pattaya : You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy |
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Dumsoda
Carpal Tunnel
Posts: 4451
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In response to Bangkoktraveler - Thailand braces for rice crisis
Rice prices (worldwide) have been steadily increasing over the past couple of years, but not to these levels.
Basmati, from Pakistan has jumped around 50% in the last 6 months (Talking about purchase quantities of +/- 1000 metric tonnes per contract)
Thai Jasmine, prolly 30%+ over same period / volumes.
Yet, drive by the Trading Coys up Country and see how little they are offering the farmers!!!!!!!
Cheers DS
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Julian2
enthusiast
Posts: 7149
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In response to Dumsoda - Thailand braces for rice crisis
Could mean more traffic on the Si Saket Highway.
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Hugh_Hoy
Monger
Posts: 4219
Loc: Here, Today; Gone Tomorr...
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In response to Julian2 - Thailand braces for rice crisis
Means the toll for that highway will get more expensive.
HH
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WorldFun
enthusiast
Posts: 2741
Loc: upcountry!
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In response to Hugh_Hoy - Thailand braces for rice crisis
USD dip, recession all help to drive price of commodities up since it's preferably to park money there as opposed to falling/shaky USD.
And since also rice is (still) priced in USD do the math!
Of course if there's bad harvest in major exporters also then like wheat or salmon there's perfect conditions for price hikes, spekulation the works :-(
Likewise for BFs & LTs. If the breeding of sexy & horny bgs have a bad season you all know what that means - GTGs will have a field day!!! 
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Flashermac
Curmudgeon
Posts: 30895
Loc: Transylvania
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In response to Julian2 - Thailand braces for rice crisis
Bangkok Post
29 Mar 2008
Rice sales crippled
Exporters unable to buy rice because of widespread hoarding and speculation have begun defaulting on orders from around the world worth up to $5 billion.
The president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, Chookiat Ophaswongse said on Friday, "There will be a lot of defaults coming up, because we cannot find any rice in the market.
"What's happening now is a lot of traders have started to negotiate with buyers abroad on how to compensate them because we cannot buy any rice."
The rice trade has been hard hit this year by unprecedented price volatility in the market, sparked by India's decision to halt rice exports. Vietnam and Cambodia also have ordered a halt to foreign sales.
India traditionally exports about 4 million tons of rice a year.
"And this year they just stopped, so that 4 million tons out of a market of say 29 million tons was removed," said Chookiat.
Vietnam, the world's second largest rice exporter after Thailand, has also put a cap on its exports at about 3.5 million tons this year, 1 million tons less than expected, and Egypt has stopped all exports, taking another 1 million tons off the world market.
"So now everyone is turning to Thailand, and this is a problem," Chookiat told the news agency Deutsche Presse-Agentur dpa.
Rice exporters, who usually sell forward at a fixed price and then buy on the local market to meet orders, have suffered unprecedented losses this year in the face of dramatic price increases, sometimes jumping $20 a day per ton.
The price of 100 per cent Grade B white rice, for instance, has jumped from $420 per ton in early January to $720 now, almost doubling.
"By my estimates, the rice traders have lost around 4 to 5 billion baht ($127 million to $159 million), at least," said the rice trader.
Chookiat criticised Thai Commerce Minister Mingkwan Sangsuwan for encouraging Thai farmers to hoard their rice in order to fetch better prices for it. Not only farmers, but millers and local businessmen have started hording and speculating on Thai rice, creating an artificial shortage for exports.
The government currently has a 2.1-million-ton stockpile that it has promised to distribute to the poor to alleviate high rice prices.
The stock is expected to last about three months, after which the government will need to go to the market to replenish their stocks, predicted Chookiat.
The crunch for the export market will also come in three to four months, when Indonesia and Iran are likely to seek imports of 1.5 million tons and 1 million tons, respectively, to meet local demand, Chookiat forecast.
Thailand has been the world's leading rice exporter since the mid-1960s. Last year, Thailand's rice exports hit an historic high of 9.55 million tons, earning the country $3.6 billion.
This year's rice exports are estimated to reach 8.75 million tons, if exporters aren't forced to default on orders, earning as much as $4.7 billion.
A happy childhood... is the worst possible preparation for life. - Kinky Friedman
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Old Hippie
I LOST a friend
Posts: 23968
Loc: SFO/OAK/BKK
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In response to Flashermac - Thailand braces for rice crisis
I better go stock up.
| "....'cause when life looks like easy street, there is danger at your door..." -Hunter/Garcia |
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redwood13
enthusiast
Posts: 414
Loc: Pattaya
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In response to Old Hippie - Thailand braces for rice crisis
From a NY Times article:
High Rice Cost Creating Fears of Asia Unrest
"Several factors are contributing to the steep rice in prices.
Rising affluence in India and China has increased demand.
Drought and other bad weather have reduced output in Australia and elsewhere.
Many rice farmers are turning to more lucrative cash crops, reducing the amount of land devoted to the grain.
And urbanization and industrialization have cut into the land devoted to rice cultivation.
In Vietnam, an obscure plant virus has caused annual output to start leveling off; it had increased significantly each year until the last three years.
Until the last few years, the potential for rapid price swings was damped by the tendency of many governments to hold very large rice stockpiles to ensure food security,........but those stockpiles were costly to maintain. So governments have been drawing them down as world rice consumption has outstripped production for most of the last decade.
The relatively small quantities traded across borders, combined with small stockpiles, now mean that prices can move quickly in response to supply disruptions.
At the same time, prices set in international rice trading now have an increasingly important effect on prices within countries. This has been particularly true in an age of Internet and mobile phone communications when even farmers in remote areas can learn about distant prices and decide whether their own buyers are giving them a fair price."
-redwood
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Faustian
Carpal Tunnel
Posts: 6516
Loc: The Elysium fields
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In response to redwood13 - Thailand braces for rice crisis
This has potential to be some really serious bad shit. It seems there are many food shortages about lately.
| "Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities" - Voltaire. |
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Flashermac
Curmudgeon
Posts: 30895
Loc: Transylvania
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In response to Faustian - Thailand braces for rice crisis
I noticed my very ordinary lunch of fried rice with shrimp cost me 5 baht more today.
A happy childhood... is the worst possible preparation for life. - Kinky Friedman
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lazyphil
Carpal Tunnel
Posts: 13089
Loc: Cromwell Country
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In response to Flashermac - Thailand braces for rice crisis
tescos boil in the bag rice price static, bought 2 boxs (4 pouches in each box) yesterday.....hopefully tescos strong arm bully boy tactics help keep my supply cheap!
necessity hath no law.
Speech to parliament, Sept. 1654.
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rchapstick
Basket Case
Posts: 2115
Loc: Planet Claire
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In response to WorldFun - Thailand braces for rice crisis
USD dip, recession all help to drive price of commodities up since it's preferably to park money there as opposed to falling/shaky USD.
And since also rice is (still) priced in USD do the math!
Its about time someone blamed us Americans for this. I was getting lonely.
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dddave
old hand
Posts: 1606
Loc: Phra Khanong
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In response to rchapstick - Thailand braces for rice crisis
There is a typical, Chinese style rice shop just around the corner from where I live; just a bare bones shop house with a couple of rows of open rice sacks.
Price cards on top of the sacks used to read about B100-200 a kilo but started steadily rising a few months ago; now up to B350++.
My GF called her family in Khon Kean early this month and they discussed the economics of opening up several paddies that hadn't been planted for a number of years. The main problem is water supply; a good rainy season is desperately needed but there is also a severe labor shortage in rural areas. Most of the younger workers have left for jobs in the cities or other countries, there aren't enough productive field workers to go around.
I imagine that most of Isan is facing the same obstacles to ramping up rice production, I have a feeling that this will quickly become the years biggest issue.
| "Please mind the gap between fantasy and reality." |
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Old Hippie
I LOST a friend
Posts: 23968
Loc: SFO/OAK/BKK
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In response to dddave - Thailand braces for rice crisis
"...there is also a severe labor shortage in rural areas. Most of the younger workers have left for jobs in the cities or other countries, there aren't enough productive field workers to go around..."
We can send them some Mexicans.
Seriously, as farm workers leave for better paying/easier jobs, the value of the remaining labor will also go up, thus driving up the cost...er right? 
I was just in a super market here (Farang market, NOT Asian) and Thai Jasmine rice store brand was $9.79 for 20lbs (Approx. 8.97 KGs)...maybe I should be stocking up?
| "....'cause when life looks like easy street, there is danger at your door..." -Hunter/Garcia |
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Julian2
enthusiast
Posts: 7149
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In response to Old Hippie - Thailand braces for rice crisis
Most of the farm workers around here are housewives with a sprinkling of old men.
The full timers are mostly hills tribes ladies and the planting/harvest brings the Thai village women out.
I like to time my evening walk into the village with the dog to coincide with the farm girls waiting for the trucks to take them back into the mountains, they're always joking around. Cheeky bitches asked for a look at my cock one night. I don't speak Lisu but the message was quite clear... where do they get these funny ideas about Farangs from????
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Old Hippie
I LOST a friend
Posts: 23968
Loc: SFO/OAK/BKK
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In response to Julian2 - Thailand braces for rice crisis
Well, the other side of the coin is, if they plant more rice, that will meet or exceed demand, then they will maybe lose money...what is the answer here?
"...Cheeky bitches asked for a look at my cock one night. I don't speak Lisu but the message was quite clear... where do they get these funny ideas about Farangs from????..."
So did you show them? if so, were they in awe? or did they just keep giggling?
| "....'cause when life looks like easy street, there is danger at your door..." -Hunter/Garcia |
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Julian2
enthusiast
Posts: 7149
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In response to Old Hippie - Thailand braces for rice crisis
I'd like to say they prostrated themselves and beat their foreheads on the ground in worship OH, but the village network would have had the news back to my Mrs before my fly was done up. The consequences could have been extremely painful.
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rchapstick
Basket Case
Posts: 2115
Loc: Planet Claire
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In response to Old Hippie - Thailand braces for rice crisis
OH
If the Bush Peso keeps taking it up the arse, we may be sending American workers
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Julian2
enthusiast
Posts: 7149
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In response to rchapstick - Thailand braces for rice crisis
Well screen them carefully before you send them up here, we don't want any trade unionists rocking the boat. 
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